Back the outsiders in horse racing

or the cautious layer, you should stick with favourites as you will not have to pay out too much if you get it wrong. Using Barry Dennis’s method of Bismarking favourites means that you will be right 66% of the time. But because of commission and the fact that you have to offer more than the market to tempt backers means you will make a 5% loss laying all favourites.

But fillies offer an excellent laying opportunity on the all weather. Punters are not going to change their ways and are going to still bet favourite fillies even if you tell them that fillies are at a very big disadvantage. They will continue to back them because they have the best form, the best speed rating, are tipped by the most newspapers, or tipped by a dodgy voice down the end of the phone.

The more adventurous can try laying the extreme outsiders. Whilst to some this may seem a high risk method, you can not ignore that fact that only 16 winners went off at 40-1 or higher from 4894 runners during the past 9 years on the all weather.

The bookies create the situation where backers are being robbed of the true worth of the outsider they fancy. The exchanges create the situation where all those punters appear in one room at the same time. For as long as the number of backers is vastly greater than the number of layers then there will always be punters out there who will take the bait.

Bookies do not get rich by laying favourites – they need outsiders to bring in small change when the jolly obliges. When an outsider wins, they swig champagne because they know any punter that wins with them, has not been paid the true price. They are serving the punter Tizer, for the price of Krug.

Compared to bookies, we have a distinct advantage. We can choose to lay just one horse, they have to lay the field.

Note: Laying outsiders is risky. Murphy’s law dictates that as soon as you read this article and lay your first outsider it will win. Freak results can happen. Lay at your own risk.

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