Anatop – Betting help

If you look closely, you can see that the system had 28 wins and 0 losses for the two month period.

That is also 28 net units won because there was no “juice” paid out for any losers.

I began with a $1,000 bankroll and risked 2% of it as my target win amount.

The reason for this percentage is that if things do progress to a 3rd bet, I would have been risking $97.02 which is about 10% of the total bankroll.

As you can see, things only came down to a C bet six times over the two month period.

This is exactly where sports bettors run into trouble with a progressive system like this.

Sometimes they just don’t have the balls to make that 3rd wager when it is called for.

This can happen when they set their initial target win amount way too high in proportion to their available bankroll.

Notice that I won a total of $560 for the last two months of the 2010 NBA season. That doesn’t sound like a lot but keep in mind I was only betting to win $20 which was 2% of my $1,000 bankroll.

That works out to a 56% ROI over two months.

The individual plays were 28-18 ATS. The truth is that almost any betting system will win with 61% winners!

Although I happened to jump on the SBP system during a really good run, you can see that a progressive system like this could work out with a much lower percentage of winners.

With an overall lower percentage, the number of betting session wins would obviously accumulate at a slower pace.
2013 Sports Betting Professor Update

The Sports Betting Professor NBA system has performed pretty well since the latter part of 2010 (that’s how long I’ve been following and using it).

Below are the past 3 years results for the SBP NBA Original System (not including the NBA playoffs)….

2010-11 70-6 +28 units
2011-12 57-6 +15 units
2012-13 58-8 +2 units

Keep in mind the Won-Lost numbers above are the progression or “betting session” wins and losses as explained further up in this article.

Each time the system loses 3 games in a row, that accounts for 1 progression loss, which amounts to losing 7 units.

Ouch!

The 2012-13 season started off like gangbusters racking up a 44-1 progression record by February 5th. It was up +37 units!

Then the shit hit the fan with 7 progression, or C bet, losses over the remaining two months of the season.

There are of course many different types of progressive betting systems other than the simple “Martingale” that I illustrate here.

In order for a progressive system like this to work there are 2 sets of criteria….

» A way to identify picks that consistently avoids longish losing streaks

» The ability to manage your bankroll and emotions like a monk

As you might guess, the second of the two is the more difficult to master.

My suggestion would be to stay away from progressive betting systems unless you have the required emotional make-up and bankroll discipline.

The truth is that most bettors don’t!

A while back I was at a crossroads with my sports betting career. After more than 20 years of betting on sports here in Reno, things were becoming a bit stale for me.

So I decided to climb out of my sports betting box that I had been hiding out in and consider some betting alternatives.

I had seen and heard of these sports betting systems that were floating around on the internet that claimed to win 97% of their bets.

Since I had been around the sports betting block more than a few times, I considered these types of outlandish assertions to be ridiculous at best.

I know from spending years in the sports betting trenches how challenging it can be to handicap above the 52.38% break-even point.

Still, I was insanely curious.

In order to satisfy my inquiring mind, I went ahead and bought 3 of these systems.

They were kind of expensive, each priced between $100 and $200.

I not only bought these systems but have field tested them with cold hard cash out in the real world of sports betting.

After familiarizing myself with each of the three systems, I discovered that, for the most part, they were all based on fairly firm foundations.

Frank Belanger of Bookie Buster and Rich Allen of Sports Betting Professor both run legitimate business.

John Morrison of Sports Betting Champ runs anything but a legitimate business.

Although his system itself has some merit, my personal experience was that his honesty and integrity leave much to be desired.

He would make a world class con-artist look like a choir boy.

Bookie Buster is actually a rehash of 25 different systems (many of them the progressive type) that opened my mind to some creative ways to bet.

Both the Sports Betting Champ and Sports Betting Professor systems are progressive betting systems.

‘Progressive’ is a very polarizing term when it comes to sports betting. You are either a big fan or consider these types of systems to be gimmicky at best.

The way these systems are able to win over 90% of their bets is not with the individual picks but with a series of progression bets that constitute a betting session.

For example, Sports Betting Professor is a 3 game, “Martingale” type of progression.

If you win the 1st game in the series the betting session or progression is over and you pocket 1 unit of profit.

If you lose that 1st game then you bet the next game in the progression for an amount to recoup your loss from bet #1 as well as your original target win amount which would vary depending on your bankroll.

If the that 2nd wager goes down then the 3rd bet is made to recoup the losses from the first 2 wagers plus the original target win amount.

If the 3rd bet loses, it goes down as a system loss. You take your lumps and start over with a new betting session.

The beauty of a betting system like this is that since you don’t take any losses you are never paying any juice or vig.

Here’s the catch….

Although a system like this is designed in such a way as to rarely lose 3 games in a row, it does happen. If it happens too often during a season, most if not all of your hard won profits go down the drain.

Much that you read about progressive betting systems, whether they pertain to roulette, craps, blackjack or sports betting has a negative tone to it.

Many so called betting experts are very quick to point out that these systems eventually fail because of factors such as….

» A long losing streak will eventually wipe out your bankroll

» House betting limits will be reached before the progression ends

» Undisciplined bettors unable to stick with the system as the bet sizes rise

With a 3 game progression, the first point should never be an issue if the proper percentage of the bankroll is being risked.

The 2nd factor does not apply to sports betting like it would to a casino table game since you can always place more than one wager on the same team.

The 3rd issue is a valid one and is the overwhelming reason these systems do not work for more than 90% of sports bettors who try them out.

It’s usually operator error that is the downfall of the system; not the system itself.

The discipline is everything in sports betting and this is a rule that anyone who deals with betting predictions on sporting events must remember all the time. In fact, the discipline is much more important than the betting system which the player uses as with it at least you can guarantee you are not going to lose any money.

Few days ago I came across an article which I will try to retell you here. The author explained his betting system to select football matches to bet on Over 2.5 goals scored in the match by both teams.

Just a note here, actually I am not convinced that this system would be profitable, but I am pretty sure this player will be successful, because I see his method of betting. He put the discipline above everything else.

So what it is about? Firstly, he chooses only matches from the five strongest football leagues in Europe – Premier League, Primera division, Bundesliga, Serie A and French Ligue 1. Then, he selects only matches in which the odds for Over 2.5 goals scored by both teams in the match are between 1.6 and 2.2. If there are no such odds he just doesn’t bet on the match, no matter how tempting it is.

When he finds such match he adds some additional filters, which decide will a bet be made or not. The first of these filters are connected with the home team. A necessary condition in the hosts last three matches to be scored at least 7 goals by both teams. Also the hosts must have scored in each of those three matches and have scored at least three goals in their last two matches.

For the guests the requirements are associated with more than 7 goals scored in their last three away matches and to have at least two of those three matches ended with more than 2.5 goals scored by both teams.

Only if he finds such match he makes a bet.

According to the player he makes some profit with this betting system, but it has little significance for me, since if he plays with discipline, it won’t be problem at least not to lose. This in turn is good enough because he gains valuable experience that will be useful in the future.

Multiple regression analysis in sports betting

Multiple regression systems are widely considered the most reliable modern sports betting system. This core of MRA is built on a timeless logical assumption: “what’s past is prologue”. This means that one must know the past to know the future. To create a multiple regression betting system, one must have reliable data regarding past information of the players and teams, meaning that trustworthy historical data is crucial to building an effective multiple regression system.

An example of using a multiple regression system in sports betting

A sports bettor will wager on the final match between Team A & Team B.

Regression #1: Bettor finds that Team A won the regular series against Team B by 3-1 during the first match of the year.

Regression#2: Bettor finds that Team B crushed Team A in a recent playoff match.

Regression#3: One player of Team A is Player X, and Player X has never won against Team B.

Since both teams have scored a victory, bettor determines that the key variable is the presence of Player X, and decides that Team B will win the match. Thus, by using multiple regression analysis, bettor is able to analyze the events of the past and extrapolate the most probable future.

To utilize multiple regression methodology in a betting system, one needs to posses consistent and reliable data on the past performance of both teams and players (“Multiple Regressions”:2013). Without an extensive and dependable source of historical data, the bettor will not be able to regress into the past to determine probable outcomes of future events (“Multiple Regressions”:2013).

To develop a multiple regression system, mining data from an online sports book that can offer accurate historical sports data in a format that is easily accessible and actionable is highly recommended. These sports books also provide step by step rules for implementing regression analysis techniques in sports betting.

Note that regression analysis methodology is also employed by most casinos in an effort to generate probabilities that favor the house – for similar reasons, sports books use regression analysis to provide sports betting enthusiasts with the same advantage. While we all know that no future event can be predicted with 100% accuracy, a comprehensive regression analysis system can be used by sports boo developers to calculate probabilities that are highly reliable.

Problem of using regression analysis in sports betting

There is one glaring problem in using regression analysis to predict outcomes of sporting events: the differentiation between correlation and causation. Regression analysis is effective at identifying a correlation between events, but cannot properly identify whether one event is caused by another. For example: regression analysis can be used to show that every time Team A loses, player X does not score a goal. However, regression analysis cannot be used to conclude that Player X not scoring a goal is the cause of Team A losing the match.

In other words, regression analysis can be used to determine probable future performance based on defined past outcomes, but is unable to define causes for past outcomes. Ultimately, the effectiveness of any multiple regression system relies entirely on the proper selection and comparison of variables.

Other betting systems

In addition to multiple regression analysis, there are two other commonly used wagering methodologies: the arbitrage betting system and the use of statistical anomalies. Arbitrage betting is designed to generate profit without taking a loss (“Multiple Regressions and Statistical Anomalies”:2012), and in most cases the result of sports event is not considered. Naturally, profits are not guaranteed, but arbitrage is a straightforward strategy that can easily be learned by novice bettors.

When implementing a strategy around statistical anomalies, the bettor seeks to gain a competitive advantage by diverging from seemingly sound predictions by introducing variables that are often overlooked by other forms of betting systems. Using this tactic successfully requires a careful study of both teams and players, as well as a variety of incidental variables, such as weather, crowd sizes, health conditions, or injuries. By using this methodology, the bettor is attempting to determine how individual players and teams deal with anomalous situations not generally encountered during a match (“Multiple Regressions and Statistical Anomalies”:2012).

Conclusion

While regression analyses can help a bettor identify and define the variables that may affect the outcome of any given match, determining which variables to measure and compare is the central challenge in building a winning regression system. Therefore, regression analysis in sports betting is based upon not only a comparison of reliable past data with future events, but in deciding which variables may potentially alter the probabilities of those future events.

Sport betting is a form of wagering on the outcomes of traditional probability games such as cards, dice, or roulette as well as on the outcomes of sporting events such as football or baseball. Betting results are resolved at the conclusion of the event and generally requires that neither of the parties involved in the wager has any influence on the event in question. A private citizen wagering on the outcome of a football match between Manchester United and Chelsea would be considered a form of sports betting, while the team owner making that same bet would not be considered a form of sports betting.

Sport betting has been popular for centuries. The earliest forms of contemporary sport betting revolved around cock fights in the late 17th century, while wagering on horse races became highly popular between the 19th to 20th centuries. In 1960, television gave birth to a new era in the history of betting on team-based sports, and the longstanding 10% tax on sports betting was eliminated in 1974, leading to even more popularity. In 1990s, the advent of the Internet facilitated online sports betting, creating an increasing need for sophisticated statistical tracking, like regression analysis, to develop winning strategies for wagering.

Traditional gambling and sports betting: Are they same?

There are several key differences between traditional gambling and sports betting. In traditional gambling, the likelihood of any event can be calculated accurately even though the number of possible results may differ (for example: the odds of picking a specific card out of a standard deck is always one in 52). However, the likely result of a sporting event cannot be calculated with such precision. While the odds of winning in traditional gambling are derived from a known probability, sports betting relies on parsing a large number of variables, usually with more than one potential outcome.

Sports gambling: Profitable or not

In 2011, the gross gaming revenue of the global gambling industry was $368.4 billion, with 8.60% of this total earned from wagers made over the Internet. Online gambling includes all Internet-based portals that provide lotteries, poker, casino games, bingo, and sports betting. Sports betting remains most popular form of online wagering, representing 43% of gambling revenue earned from Internet sources, with a total market of $13.66 billion.

Methods used in sports betting system

Various methods can be used to generate a sports betting system, although most experts agree that the most widely used method is regression analysis. Regression analysis can be used to establish the important factors and variables which will influence the overall outcome of a sporting event. Multivariate linear regression, logistic regression, and multiple regression analysis can all be used to calculate the probability of any outcome, and since determining the outcome of a sporting event requires analyzing a high number of variables, regression analysis provides a suitable framework for defining and assigning a value to these variables. For example: A multivariate linear test on American football games was conducted by NFL. The result showed that the most important variable – the variable with the highest influence over the outcome of the match – was “passing efficiency”. Recent movies and bestseller titles like Moneyball have delved into the world of statistical analysis, driving increased interest in the use of regression analysis for sports betting.

Logistic regression analysis

Logistic regression is a forecasting technique that provides a probability percentage for a given variable. For example, if one wants to calculate the probability of a team winning the 59th game of the season, they would analyze the last 58 games to obtain the team’s point differential or margin of victory (MV or MOV). Margin of victory is a statistical term which indicates difference between the number of points scored by the winning team and the number of points scored by the losing team. A smaller MV represents a close match, and by using statistical software like SPSS, the following equation can provide the percentage chance that the team will win, based on MV scores:

or the cautious layer, you should stick with favourites as you will not have to pay out too much if you get it wrong. Using Barry Dennis’s method of Bismarking favourites means that you will be right 66% of the time. But because of commission and the fact that you have to offer more than the market to tempt backers means you will make a 5% loss laying all favourites.

But fillies offer an excellent laying opportunity on the all weather. Punters are not going to change their ways and are going to still bet favourite fillies even if you tell them that fillies are at a very big disadvantage. They will continue to back them because they have the best form, the best speed rating, are tipped by the most newspapers, or tipped by a dodgy voice down the end of the phone.

The more adventurous can try laying the extreme outsiders. Whilst to some this may seem a high risk method, you can not ignore that fact that only 16 winners went off at 40-1 or higher from 4894 runners during the past 9 years on the all weather.

The bookies create the situation where backers are being robbed of the true worth of the outsider they fancy. The exchanges create the situation where all those punters appear in one room at the same time. For as long as the number of backers is vastly greater than the number of layers then there will always be punters out there who will take the bait.

Bookies do not get rich by laying favourites – they need outsiders to bring in small change when the jolly obliges. When an outsider wins, they swig champagne because they know any punter that wins with them, has not been paid the true price. They are serving the punter Tizer, for the price of Krug.

Compared to bookies, we have a distinct advantage. We can choose to lay just one horse, they have to lay the field.

Note: Laying outsiders is risky. Murphy’s law dictates that as soon as you read this article and lay your first outsider it will win. Freak results can happen. Lay at your own risk.